When President
Bush announced a multi-billion-dollar bird-flu epidemic
preparedness plan about a month ago, companies were already
scrambling to offer up related diagnostics, therapeutics, and
vaccines. More than 60 such products are in
development or are now available. (See Tables 1, 2, and 3, below
for specific products.) At least 30 companies
are working in this field.
Unquestionably,
there is money to be had from the many agencies now mobilizing
against a threat the World Health Organization (WHO)'s
director-general has deemed inevitable: "It
is only a matter of time before an avian flu virus -- most likely
H5N1 -- acquires the ability to be transmitted from human to
human, sparking the outbreak of human pandemic influenza,"
Lee Jong-wook, said in early November, according to CNN.
Most needed are
rapid diagnostics to help detect the disease, as well as better
new treatments and protective vaccines. Although many nations are
stockpiling Roche's Tamiflu, a Vietnamese doctor with first-hand
experience recently said that drug is "useless" against
avian flu. Officials dispute that claim, but there is clearly
demand for new treatments.
Bird flu entails
high risk for companies, however, because it is not certain this
will ever become a real market. Fears of a worldwide SARS (Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic, for example, proved
unfounded, leaving businesses with no rewards. Vaccines are
generally considered a bad bet anyway because they are such
low-margin products and are very litigation prone.
As a result,
companies are still looking for the government, and the public in
some cases, to share more of the risk related to these endeavors.
In the U.S., the proposed Biomedical Advanced Research and
Development Agency (BARDA) would be exempt from the open records
and meetings laws that most government departments must obey. The
goal is for the government to act as a partner and provide
sufficient safeguards and incentives to keep the private sector
interested.
If the epidemic
does materialize, much more than merely the proper medical tools
will be required to combat high numbers of avian flu cases.
And at this point, it appears even the U.S. is ill-prepared
to address this threat. In a recent report from the
nonprofit organization Trust for America's Health, the U.S.
government received a "D+ for post-9/11 public health
emergency preparedness," while more than half of U.S. states
received 5 or less out of 10 possible points for "key
indicators of health emergency preparedness." The group based
their assessment in part on a survey of public health experts and
available data.
References:
"An Agency,
Quietly, Would Spur Vaccines," Boston.com,
Dec. 4, 2005.
"Bird Flu
Hype Infecting Biotech Industry," Chron.com
(AP), Dec. 5, 2005.
"Bush
Announces Plan to Prepare for Flu Epidemic," NYTimes.com,
Nov.1, 2005.
"Doctor Says
Bird Flu Drug is 'Useless'," Timesonline.com,
Dec. 4, 2005.
"Questions
and Answers: H5N1 Avian Flu Vaccine
Trials," NIAID.gov
"Ready or
Not," Healthyamericans.org,
Dec. 6, 2005.
"WHO: Human
Flu Pandemic Inevitable," CNN.com,
Nov. 14, 2005.
